Many access platforms have been touted as suitable to support internet of things and edge computing applications, ranging from satellite and fixed networks to mobile and low power wide area networks, plus local connectivity options including Wi-Fi.
As often is the case, not every proposed alternative succeeds. And for IoT connectivity, there have been many choices. Too many, observers might say.
So winnowing will happen over time, partly as use cases and appropriate connectivity modes become generally accepted; partly as customers decide they do not wish to use some of the choices and partly as service providers conclude the business case for some platforms simply does not make sense.
As with any technology or product, scale will matter. And some platforms will simply not get traction enough to allow scaling.
A case in point is the Sigfox bankruptcy, which largely relegates that option to niches, assuming sustainability can be obtained.
Now Bouygues Telecom says it will abandon LoRaWAN in favor of mobile network access. That does not end prospects for LoRaWAN, but weakens its case for mainstream deployment.
Over time, mobile network platforms will narrow as well, with less use of 3G. It remains to be seen how much usage broadband (4G and 5G connections) gets, compared to the narrower-band and specialized NB-IoT and LTE-M platforms.
Many believe NB-IoT already is failing to get traction, even as adoption hopes remain high. .
Decisions will also be spurred if connectivity revenues are smallish. Most observers expect the great majority of IoT connections will use local access connections of various types, and will not be using a wide area network service such as the mobile network or a low-power wide area network.
So the issue remains: how big a market will WAN service connections represent? And, if the market is significant, how significant will it be, compared to other opportunities service providers may have?
At the moment service providers might be earning monthly revenues between $0.50 and $1.00 a month. But some believe IoT per-connection prices could fall to as little as $1 per year. How many service providers could make a business case for such a service?
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