Saturday, August 10, 2019

When Will Quantum Changes Next Happen in Computing?

At what point do quantitative improvements in computing or communications networks lead to qualitative changes? And what is more important--advances in computing speed or communications network speed? 

Looking only at mobile networks, we have seen two orders of magnitude increases in end user device speeds, in each successive generation, from 2G to 4G, for example. That should not change with 5G, either. 


In a broad sense, the emergence of the internet, cloud computing and edge computing are examples of qualitative changes produced by all the quantitative changes. Eventually, faster speeds and more bandwidth, resulting in lower application latency, plus lower prices, enable new use cases. 

Perhaps these changes are easier to see on mobile platforms, as the generational differences in platform are easier to describe. 


Only analog voice was possible in the first mobile generation. Low-speed data and texting became possible in 2G. Mobile internet became widespread in the 3G era. Mobile consumption of video became possible in the 4G era. What use cases will characterize the 5G era are not yet clear. But it seems reasonable to assume that some characteristic new use cases will develop as a result of quantitative improvements in network performance and cost. 


What might now be clear, though, is that 5G will be among the instances where improvements in communications networks provide the quantitative changes that result in qualitative developments. Edge device processors and capabilities will improve. But the decisive changes will come from new capabilities in the communications networks.

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